The Sea Level Rise Viewer, while useful for visualisation, has its limitations and may not accurately represent real-world conditions in all cases. For a more detailed understanding of these limitations, please refer to the Limitations and disclaimer document.
Sea-Level Rise Viewer and Projections
Our coastline is becoming more vulnerable to the impacts of our changing climate, especially rising sea levels. To help coastal communities understand how rising sea levels could impact our coastline in the future, we have developed a Sea Level Rise Viewer.
Sea-Level Rise Viewer
This tool was developed to support meaningful conversations on how low-lying communities can prepare for these challenges in the long-term. Using a 'bathtub' model, it provides a simplistic visualisation of how different levels of sea rise could affect various areas.
The Sea Level Rise Viewer is based on the latest ground elevation data. It is not property-specific and does not account for coastal dynamics, flood protection, or other engineered measures. It also does not predict sea level rise or coastal inundation (flooding). Instead, it provides a simple representation of areas that could be exposed to varying levels of sea rise.
Anyone interested in current predicted sea level rise forecast scenarios, please refer to www.searise.nz
Before using the tool, please read the frequently asked questions and answers, as well as the limitations and disclaimer document below.
Sea-Level Rise Projections
In 2024, Regional Council commissioned NIWA (now Earth Sciences New Zealand) to prepare an updated assessment of mean sea level and sea-level rise projections for the Bay of Plenty region.
The assessment was prepared to:
- update regional information on observed mean sea level, historical sea-level trends and high tide levels
- provide updated sea-level rise projections out to 2150 for the Bay of Plenty
- support long-term planning, coastal hazard work, and community conversations about future coastal change.
The projections are not a prediction of exactly what will happen at a particular place or time. They provide a range of possible future sea-level rise scenarios. This helps Council, communities, infrastructure providers, and others consider how coastal exposure may change over time. It is not property-specific advice and should not replace detailed site-specific coastal hazard, planning, engineering, or development advice.
The Sea Level Rise Viewer and the assessment should be used together carefully. The viewer shows areas that could be exposed to different sea-level rise increments. The assessment provides information about when those increments could be reached under different future scenarios.
Common questions and answers
Why does the Sea Level Rise Viewer show a site as submerged at 0 m when it’s not, in reality?
How accurate is the information displayed on the Sea Level Rise Viewer?
The Sea Level Rise Viewer is a tool designed to support adaptation planning, by helping users visualise the potential effects of sea level rise in low-lying coastal areas. The tool uses a 'bathtub' model, a simplified method that is based on elevation data and assumes water fills up the land uniformly, similar to how water fills a bathtub.
The mapping tool does not include all the components that contribute to coastal inundation and/or fluvial inundation. The Sea Level Rise Viewer is a simple representation of land exposed to sea level rise and does not substitute current inundation models or coastal hazard assessments by qualified specialists.
Other factors to take into consideration when considering the accuracy of this viewer are:
- The uncertainty surrounding future sea level rise.
There are a range of sea level rise scenarios predicted, depending on future global emissions. More information about the range of scenarios can be found at NZ SeaRise Programme. - The accuracy of the ground elevations used to map the sea level scenarios.
All ground levels used to map the sea level scenarios have been measured using LiDAR aerial surveys. The LiDAR information is generally accurate to around ±0.2 m vertically relative to the chosen vertical datum. However, the LiDAR information is a ‘snapshot’ of the ground elevation at the time of the survey.
Will the Sea Level Rise Viewer devalue my property?
The Sea Level Rise Viewer offers a simplified visual representation of areas exposed to sea level rise at various increments, allowing users to select the level of sea rise they wish to display. The viewer does not attempt to predict sea level rise and it does not inform building consent processes, so it will not impact LIM.
Property values are typically influenced by factors like the state of the economy, interest rates, income, and changes to population size.
Will the information displayed on the Sea Level Rise Viewer cause issues for my insurance?
Insurance companies should not be using this tool to ascertain coastal-inundation risk for any specific property, although they may use the tool to identify areas that may require further assessment.
The Deep South National Science Challenge has developed an easy-to-read info sheet for homeowners, with important frequently asked questions about how insurance companies might respond to increasing climate hazards. Read more about house insurance and climate change.
Can I use the Sea Level Rise Viewer tool to support a consent application?
No. A site-specific assessment on coastal hazards is likely to be required. This tool is not a true source for flood information, therefore, it is not suitable for this purpose and is not a substitute for any inundation information held by Bay of Plenty Regional Council.